When Pacific Northwest national parks issue early campfire bans in June, it signals that this summer will be anything but typical.
From Crater Lake to Mount Rainier, park officials are citing abnormally dry conditions and expected elevated temperatures as they prepare for above-normal fire danger through September.
The National Interagency Fire Center's seasonal outlook confirms these concerns, forecasting above-average fire risk across much of western Canada and portions of California and the Northwest U.S., with the high-risk zone expected to expand significantly during July through September to include additional areas in the Southern Plains and Northern Minnesota.
The numbers paint a stark picture of what's ahead. As of early July, the U.S. has already experienced 37,483 wildfires, which represents 127% of the 10-year average. While total burned area remains at 85% of average, the unusually high fire count indicates many smaller and moderate-sized fires are igniting across the country.
Southern California has experienced fire acres six times above average before midsummer, demonstrating the volatility and intensity that characterizes this season. The national preparedness level has increased, reflecting strained resources amid multiple large fires, especially in the West and Alaska.
An unprecedented wildfire risk is being created by several critical factors. During spring and early summer 2025, western U.S. temperatures were 1.5F above the 20th-century average, accelerating snowmelt and drying vegetation earlier than usual.
The Western U.S. is experiencing severe to exceptional drought conditions, particularly in California and Nevada. As a result, the amount of moisture in live and dead fuel has plummeted below critical levels, with live fuel moisture falling below 70% and dead fuel moisture below 5% in many ecosystems, creating ideal conditions for rapid fire initiation and spread.
The limited use of prescribed burns has led to the accumulation of dense vegetation and drought-stressed trees, further increasing fire severity risks. During peak summer months, the National Interagency Fire Center has frequently issued "High" to "Extreme" fire danger ratings because of hot, dry winds and low humidity.
California's Cal Fire notes that fire potential will increase steadily through summer, with both Northern and Southern regions expecting above-normal large fire activity by July and August due to persistent drought, high grass fuel loads, and early-season dryness.
The Northern Rockies and Northwest face increasing fire risk as drought and heat set in, with lightning storms from moisture-starved thunderstorms likely to spark new fires. Central and Southern Texas, Oklahoma, and the grasslands face above-normal fire activity from dry conditions and high winds.
Even traditionally wetter regions aren't immune. Drought pockets increase the risk of wildfire flare-ups in parts of the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida, and the Gulf Coast, where fallen trees from recent storms add to fuel loads.
There is a forecast of an extended summer of wildfire smoke for western Canada and the Western U.S., including above-average fire risks in August and September. There is a likelihood that smoke will affect air quality even in distant urban areas, as fires burn simultaneously across multiple regions. The situation is compounded by the fact that 90% of U.S. wildfires are caused by human activity, including power lines, campfires, and discarded cigarettes, adding to the natural risks.
Wildfires will pose unprecedented threats to homes and businesses across multiple states in summer 2025 due to elevated wildfire risks. Wildfire damage often involves complex legal challenges that insurance companies and government agencies do not make easy to navigate. Atraxia Law assists wildfire victims in obtaining full and fair compensation for their losses.
Our team is prepared to pursue all avenues of recovery under the law, as we understand how quickly fire can destroy years of planning and investment. Fire season can be dangerous, so don't get caught off guard. Contact Atraxia Law if wildfires have damaged your property this summer.